A friend wrote on Facebook:

Many in the MSM (mainstream media) will tell lies to your face. be prudent Prices rose 8.5% year-on-year in July. This is not a significant downturn. If you’ve lost 1/12th of your money since last July, that’s not really an improvement over losing 1/11th of your money since last June. That is what these cannibals are trying to argue here.

I won’t mention friends by name: My policy when I quote from FB is to never name the person I’m quoting without first getting their consent.

But actually, if the data says you lost 1/12 [the value of] You’ve lost more money since July than 1/11 from June 2021 to June 2022, which is probably a huge improvement. It depends on your baseline.

Here is the first paragraph of the BLS’ August 10 report on the latest inflation numbers:

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today that the consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) was unchanged in July after a 1.3 percent increase in June. Over the past 12 months, the all-items index rose 8.5 percent before seasonal adjustments.

If your baseline is, as it seems to be for most people, inflation to continue at high levels, then going from 1.3 percent in one month (June) to 0 percent in one month (July) is a huge improvement.

If your baseline is the purchasing power of your dollar 13 months ago, it’s no improvement at all to find out what additional purchasing power it lost in the 13th month.

What is clear, though, is that until the July data is updated to reflect the actual increase in the CPI in July, his statement, “It’s not a significant recession” is wrong.

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