The duration of flux is always interesting. If you look in the right place, you can find evidence that the dominant trend is giving way, often before it is reflected in the feeling.
In the case of dots: Collectible car sales.
On Fridays, I like to dive deeper into an attractive automobile. Some are new EVs, others are old classics, and others are just fun, fast machines The process allows me to learn something about a particular car. Often, inspiration comes from various auction sites. I bid on “star” or attractive cars and get pinged with 30 minutes left in the auction.
This week, I decided to combine my usual Friday car with the recent discussion of inflation and ambitious home prices. The reason was the unusual number of auctions where the reserve price was not met and the car failed to sell. “RNM” may be some confirmation bias on my part, or it may point to the top of the car price.
These are anecdotes, but if you really want to fall into the rabbit hole, check out the underestimation. Dome Analysis by Four Wheel Trader. Years, mileage, options, even color can play a role in determining the price of a car.
Some recent RNM examples:
2019 Ford GT Carbon Series: Bid on 1,075,000.
The BAT shows the pre-sale range of each vehicle and it was the center of the range. Perhaps the higher price of the Carbon series has been confirmed, and with only 500 miles, it is virtually new. Maybe it’s a stripe / color combo …
1966 Chevrolet Corvette Convertible 427 4-speed. Bid on 100,000.
The Big 427 engine and 4 speeds are recommended, but nothing is said about the number match, so that it stays a bit away from the top. Also, the C2 Vette is one of the few cars where the coupe is sometimes more valuable than a convertible car because of how amazingly gorgeous it is. (I’m biased)
2006 Ferrari F430 Spider 6-Speed: Bid on 288,000
The price of the F430 has been rising for a while, but the manuals have become ballistic. A friend picked up the F1 version, I saw dozens of them looking at the $ 150k-190k range. But 6-Speed is regularly going for a lot more – you see half a dozen that sold for $ 300k-400k or more. I suspect those people topped the 430 market …
Euro 2000 BMW Z8 Bid for 176,000.
One of my favorite cars, and it was a fair price 2 years ago. They have run out of price, especially alpina (meh) and more preferred color combos, such as black / crema, or my favorite color combination for them, topaz blue / cream napa. (No, really) I have to be patient waiting for this price to come down.
1965 Porsche 356C Cabriolet: Bid on 145,000.
What a charming little jog, that’s fun to run and easy to maintain. Their price range is on the whole map, as is the frequent RNM for them (see white circle here).
2020 Mercedes-AMG G63: Bid on 176,000.
Not my favorite truck, but there is a certain market among second home owners in Russian Oligarch and Hampton. The MSRP was new at $ 173,345, and while you can list these for sale within 200, they are either heavily modified or just ambitious.
It goes without saying that cars are not being sold, but rather, a significant increase in RNM has caught my eye. Other cars are selling at what I consider to be market prices, and I think these are more reasonably reserved:
The 2008 Porsche 911 Turbo Coupe 6-Speed sold for $ 99,000.
The 2014 Audi R8 V10 Spyder 6-Speed sold for $ 157,000.
The 2017 Lamborghini Huracan LP580-2 coupe sold for $ 229,000.
–2015 Ferrari F12berlinetta sold for $ 270,000.
The 2005 Ford GT sold for 20 420,000, as did the Heritage version of the 2006 Ford GT for $ 669,000.
-1970 Plymouth Superbird 440 + 6 sold for 8 238,000
These are priced higher than 2019 but within a reasonable range compared to other recent sales.
I remember witnessing a similar incident in a single-family home in 2006; It takes some time for the market to change to break the mindset / intentional thinking of the sellers,
Time will tell if this is really the price of the “peak” car – I guess we are – but we’ll find out soon enough.
Ambitious pricing (May 25, 2022)
Transit taking longer than expected (February 10, 2022)